NATO leaders are expected to confirm at the summit in Vilnius that the situation in Kosovo is serious and that NATO\u2019s mission, KFOR, is there to ensure the security of all citizens, including the Serbian minority in the north, says Milan Ni\u010d from the German Council on Foreign Relations.<\/p>\n
Speaking in an interview with Radio Free Europe, Ni\u010d says that the troubles would be much greater if NATO were not in Kosovo.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think [Kosovo] is closer to an open conflict than Bosnia. And it\u2019s a different level of conflict because you have physical attacks or confrontations in the north, you have parallel structures, you have explosions, and a small incident can lead to something bigger,\u201d says Ni\u010d, an expert on the Western Balkans and NATO expansion.<\/p>\n
Referring to Serbia, he says its President, Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107, can play the game of \u201cboth the West and Russia\u201d for a long time.<\/p>\n
Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> Let\u2019s start with Ukraine. Will it receive security guarantees at the NATO summit in Vilnius?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d:<\/strong> It depends on what you mean by security guarantees. Ukraine can hope for something more from the Vilnius Summit, but not full membership. Diplomats have been working on precise formulations that will be welcomed by all member states, as there are different opinions on the future steps towards Ukraine. The summit in Vilnius will produce a \u201cBucharest Plus\u201d, but exactly what it will be is a matter of diplomatic discussions. [Note: At the summit in Bucharest in 2008, NATO welcomed Ukraine\u2019s Euro-Atlantic aspirations and agreed that the country would become a member of NATO.]<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> How about Sweden? Will it join NATO?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d:<\/strong> I hope so, possibly next year. Unfortunately, the goal of having all member countries ratify Sweden\u2019s membership before the Vilnius Summit has not been achieved because Turkey has not lifted its veto, and Hungary has also postponed ratification until autumn. Things are moving, there is a lot of pressure on Turkey, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan insists that not all conditions have been met. I expect a strong political signal to come out of the Vilnius Summit, emphasizing that Sweden is almost in NATO, that all members except two have ratified the membership, and that the alliance can welcome Sweden as a full member.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> Has the war in Ukraine shown that NATO is a security guarantee?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d:<\/strong> I believe so, because Ukraine was attacked precisely because it was not in NATO. Russia clearly targets the weakest countries. Look at the Western Balkans as well. It is important that three out of six countries in this region are in NATO. And we can imagine what would happen, for example, in Kosovo if it did not have the security framework it has, namely KFOR [NATO\u2019s peacekeeping mission]. After Russia started the war in Ukraine, there is no longer an appetite for ambiguity or gray zones in Europe. Either you are on the road to NATO, or in NATO. [Otherwise], you are vulnerable to Russian hybrid threats.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> What would happen if NATO were not in Kosovo?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d:<\/strong> I can say it in one sentence: The troubles would be much greater.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> Have you followed the recent crisis in northern Kosovo?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d:<\/strong> I have stopped counting the crises between Kosovo and Serbia. They are not good for either party. Even the United States and European allies are losing their patience. Because it is a distraction from the main thing happening in Europe [the war in Ukraine], which will also determine the future of Serbia and Kosovo. So, it is regrettable. But it is also a matter of the political choices of the two leaders [of Kosovo and Serbia] as to how far they will go with these tensions and one-sided actions. One-sided actions have come more from Belgrade, but in the past year also from Pristina.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe: <\/strong>Due to the crisis in the north, Kosovo has been excluded from a major military exercise led by the United States and other NATO allies. What message has this sent to Kosovo?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d: <\/strong>The United States simply wanted to send a signal that you cannot risk more tensions without consequences.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> How far can NATO go with Kosovo, considering its mission is responsible for security…<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d: <\/strong>If we talk about the summit in Vilnius, I think there will be a reaffirmation in the declaration that the situation is serious and that NATO is there to guarantee the security of all citizens, including the Serbian minority in the north. It is a matter for the Government of Kosovo to what extent it wants to be allied with its main supporters in the West and coordinate diplomatic steps with them towards Serbia. Because, ultimately, it has to do with coordination and building alliances. And the track record of the current Government of Kosovo in this regard is not very good.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina have sought accelerated accession in NATO. How realistic is this?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d: <\/strong>Bosnia is much further ahead. In fact, Bosnia is even ahead of what Ukraine is expected to receive from the Vilnius Summit, and ahead of Georgia, which has also sought membership. Let\u2019s not forget that Bosnia has an action plan for membership, although it is called by a different name. But its future steps have been blocked by the lack of unity between Sarajevo and Banja Luka. The current leadership of Republika Srpska has made it clear that they do not want further progress and more integration into NATO. The case of Kosovo is more complicated because four NATO member countries still do not recognize Kosovo as a state. However, it also has intensive cooperation with NATO, which is now on hold due to the overall actions of the Government of Kosovo in response to the events in the north.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> NATO has identified Bosnia as a possible area for Russian activities. How vulnerable is Kosovo to them?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d:<\/strong> It is at a different level, completely different vulnerability. I think it is closer to an open conflict than Bosnia. And it\u2019s a different level of conflict because you have physical attacks or confrontations in the north, you have parallel structures, you have explosions, and a small incident can lead to something bigger. KFOR is there to prevent these incidents from escalating into something larger. But I want to emphasize that, despite the recent crisis in Bosnia and all the tensions, there are no physical confrontations there.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> What about Serbia? Could there be a moment when, like Finland and Sweden, it changes its mind about NATO?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d:<\/strong> No, Serbia is playing the card of a neutral country. It hides the fact that it has quite intensive cooperation with NATO, in their common interest. Serbian President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 has mastered this game, presenting himself as neutral but, at the same time, strengthening relations with the United States and being quite vulnerable to Russian influence.<\/p>\n Radio Free Europe:<\/strong> How long can Serbia play this game?<\/p>\n Milan Ni\u010d:<\/strong> I think it can play it for a long time because it doesn\u2019t depend solely on Serbia, it also depends on the global situation. If you read analyses on the impact of the Russian war on the global order, it is a significant push for so-called middle powers like Turkey and Israel, as they can expand \u2013 in a way \u2013 the maneuvering space between the West and Russia. If you are not a very small country and have strategic importance, you can play this game. So, Vu\u010di\u0107’s strategic maneuvering space has expanded, and this is what [Kosovo\u2019s Prime Minister Albin] Kurti has underestimated.<\/p>\n Since the beginning, Serbia has been sending ammunition to Ukraine through third parties. If the most important thing in Europe now is assistance to Ukraine, even countries like Serbia \u2013 paradoxically \u2013 can contribute to this effort.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NATO leaders are expected to confirm at the summit in Vilnius that the situation in Kosovo is serious and that NATO\u2019s mission, KFOR, is there to ensure the security of all citizens, including the Serbian minority in the north, says Milan Ni\u010d from the German Council on Foreign Relations. Speaking in an interview with Radio […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":57030,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[250],"tags":[2471,1304,817,300,150,243,151,383,791,2203,284,301,2047,1212,285,2585,3307,3320,787],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n