{"id":58743,"date":"2023-08-14T14:31:56","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T12:31:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/euronews.al\/en\/?p=58743"},"modified":"2023-08-14T14:31:56","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T12:31:56","slug":"the-wests-see-no-evil-approach-to-serbias-vucic-risks-destabilizing-the-balkans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/euronews.al\/en\/the-wests-see-no-evil-approach-to-serbias-vucic-risks-destabilizing-the-balkans\/","title":{"rendered":"The West\u2019s \u201csee no evil\u201d approach to Serbia\u2019s Vu\u010di\u0107 risks destabilizing the Balkans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(CNN) \u2013 <\/strong>When Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and European Union accelerated their pivot towards Serbia. Rather than juggling the contradictory demands of pluralistic and fractious Balkan states, Western capitals focused the bulk of their efforts on a singular target.<\/p>\n<p>Their policies had two aims. First, to bring Serbia into the Western fold, away from Russia. Second, to allow their respective administrations to focus more fully on supporting Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Traditionally one of Moscow\u2019s closest allies in Europe, Belgrade has long tried to tread the line between its historical ties to Russia and a potential future of closer European integration. Western diplomats have sought to pull Serbian President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 from the orbit of his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, by pledging a swifter path to EU membership while simultaneously warning of isolation if they break rank.<\/p>\n<p>But, 18 months on, some observers say the current approach has been all carrot and no stick, and as a result is failing to achieve both of its aims.<\/p>\n<p>Serbia has refused to participate in all rounds of EU sanctions against Putin. And Serbia has continued to pursue its own interests in the region with diminishing accountability, stirring conflicts abroad to distract from discontent at home, safe in the knowledge they will not be rebuked in the West.<\/p>\n<p>The effects of this have been felt most keenly in Kosovo, which achieved independence from Serbia in 2008, after the bloody Balkan wars of the 1990s. But Belgrade \u2013 and many ethnic Serbs in Kosovo\u2019s north \u2013 still refuse to recognize its sovereignty, straining relations between the neighbors.<\/p>\n<p>CNN spoke with several experts, as well as locals in Serbia and the north of Kosovo, who are rankled by US and EU attempts to court Serbia into the Euro-Atlantic community, and contend that their continued pursuit of the policy risks alienating democratic allies and increasing security concerns in the region.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u201cA Russian Trojan horse\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Western governments have long treated Serbia as the indispensable Balkan voice, sometimes at the expense of more peripheral players, some observers say.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTheir belief is that Serbia is the Balkan state, as they see it. Serbia is the one that, if you can bring them on side \u2013 whatever that might mean \u2013 everything will be easier,\u201d Jasmin Mujanovic, a political scientist specializing in the Western Balkans, told CNN.<\/p>\n<p>While consecutive US administrations have tried to bring Vu\u010di\u0107 and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) \u201cin from the cold,\u201d these efforts \u201chave become especially brazen\u201d since the war began in Ukraine, Mujanovic said, and have not achieved the US\u2019 objectives.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey seem to believe that they are bringing Serbia closer towards the EU and towards NATO and towards Western thinking and away from Russia\u2026 But that isn\u2019t something I would say is being reflected on the ground,\u201d Alicia Kearns, a British lawmaker and chair of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Select Committee, told CNN.<\/p>\n<p>Vu\u010di\u0107 has long maintained a cozy relationship with his Russian counterpart, Putin. Speaking after a National Security Council meeting in February, Vu\u010di\u0107 justified his decision not to sanction Russia because it was \u201cthe only country not to have imposed sanctions against us in the 1990s.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey supported our territorial integrity in the United Nations,\u201d he added, referring to Russia\u2019s refusal to recognize Kosovo\u2019s independence. Serbia lost control of Kosovo after a NATO bombing campaign in 1999, which ended the massacre of ethnic Albanians \u2013 who make up more than 90% of Kosovo\u2019s population \u2013 by Serb forces.<\/p>\n<p>Despite EU-supported efforts toward energy transition, Serbia remains heavily dependent on Russia, having sold a majority stake of its oil company to Russia state-owned giant Gazprom.<\/p>\n<p>The result is that, despite Serbia\u2019s professed hopes to join the EU, Vu\u010di\u0107 has continued to walk a tightrope between Moscow and western powers. Though he has joined UN resolutions condemning Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, Serbia\u2019s leader has shown little willingness to join western sanctions.<\/p>\n<p>In April, the Serbian government denied reports that it sold weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, after a leaked Pentagon document emerged claiming otherwise. Serbia said at the time that it maintained its policy of neutrality, though some Western officials took the reports as proof that their policy was working.<\/p>\n<p>Several analysts told CNN that Serbia has had to do very little to win praise from American and European officials, and that in reality Vu\u010di\u0107 has left a trail of broken promises.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen we had his [Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s 2020] re-election, we were all told, just wait until after the election, you\u2019ll suddenly see that he becomes very Western- and European- oriented,\u201d said Kearns. \u201cIt didn\u2019t happen.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe were told he would join sanctions and show that he is genuinely on our side. It didn\u2019t happen. We were told he wouldn\u2019t get closer to Russia. He signed a security agreement with Putin in September. Time after time, he laughs in the face of the West. And when I ask Western officials, \u2018why are you so determined to let Vu\u010di\u0107 play you?\u2019 they say he is the best option,\u201d said Kearns.<\/p>\n<p>Kearns has been one of the few Western figures to criticize Serbia publicly. But it has come at a cost. After she spoke to CNN, Vu\u010di\u0107 issued an apparent threat to her during an address on state television, claiming that \u201cif the government of Great Britian is not willing to react\u201d to her criticisms of Serbia, \u201cWe will be forced to react.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Given such behavior, some question whether the whole project of Serbian integration is viable, under its current government.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAssuming we somehow miraculously bring Serbia into the EU, with this sort of regime, you are practically bringing another Russian Trojan horse into the EU, like you have in the shape of [Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor] Orban,\u201d Majda Ruge, a Balkan expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYes, you may affect enlargement, but you\u2019re certainly not going to neutralize Russian influence in the region \u2013 you\u2019re just going to import it into the EU.\u201d<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kosovo and the rule of law <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The effects of the West\u2019s forgiving approach to Belgrade are felt most keenly in Kosovo, which has depended on Western support since declaring independence. While more than 100 countries recognize its sovereignty, Serbia does not, viewing it instead as a breakaway state. Attempts to normalize relations between the two countries \u2013 overseen by the US and EU \u2013 have been fraught and occasionally violent.<\/p>\n<p>The fiercest flashpoint came after mayoral elections Kosovo\u2019s four northern municipalities in May. These elections often pass without fanfare: Around 90% of the population in this region are ethnic Serbs, and so, under ordinary circumstances, they elect ethnic Serbs as their mayors.<\/p>\n<p>But these were not ordinary circumstances. In November, mayors from the Belgrade-backed Serb List party, which dominates the four municipalities, simultaneously resigned. They were followed by ethnic Serb police officers, administrative staff and judges in the region.<\/p>\n<p>Their resignations triggered new elections, due to be held in December. Serb List said it would not participate in the elections, after Serbs in the region boycotted them, with Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s full support. But, given the tensions, Kosovo agreed to postpone the elections until April \u2013 a decision that was praised by the Quint, an informal group comprising the US, UK, France, Germany and Italy.<\/p>\n<p>With Kosovo Serbs not participating, ethnic Albanian candidates ran unchallenged. Election officials said only around 1,500 people voted across the four municipalities \u2013 a turnout of just 3.5%. Some mayors were elected with scarcely more than 100 votes.<\/p>\n<p>But while the elections were by no means representative, for Kosovo\u2019s Prime Minister Albin Kurti, the issue had come to represent nothing less than the rule of law itself.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe have four mayors whose legitimacy is low. But, nonetheless, there is no one who is more legitimate than them. We have to have the rule of law. We are a democratic republic,\u201d Kurti told CNN in May.<\/p>\n<p>However, the prime minister\u2019s stance has been criticized as hardline and uncompromising. His allies accused him of forcing entry to the mayor\u2019s offices on May 26, when many were surrounded by protesters, against explicit instructions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe US did tell Kurti \u2013 and this is where he\u2019s at fault \u2013 they told him not to install them in the municipal buildings. And this is where Kurti ignored the specific direction,\u201d said Edward Joseph, a foreign policy lecturer at Johns Hopkins University who served for a dozen years in the Balkans, including with NATO.<\/p>\n<p>A Pristina government official told CNN that they did not want to \u201csurrender\u201d official government buildings to protesters. \u201cThe mayors entered their offices\u2026 Serbia had urged Serbs to boycott the elections. Now they wanted no one to enter those buildings. But then, the question is: If the mayors should not enter the building, who should?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But while Kurti may have taken an uncoordinated action, the response to this was not inevitable. The worst of the violence came not on the day the mayors entered their offices, but three days later, in the town of Zvecan \u2013 when the mayor was not even in the building.<\/p>\n<p>The violence was extreme. Dozens of NATO peacekeepers were injured after they were attacked by ethnic Serbs. Some injuries were severe: Three Hungarian soldiers were shot; one had his leg amputated.<\/p>\n<p>Kurti told CNN these were not \u201cpeaceful protesters,\u201d but a \u201cfascist militia\u201d known to operate in Kosovo\u2019s north, \u201cwho are being paid and ordered by Belgrade.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Serbian government did not respond to multiple requests for comment.<\/p>\n<p>Others agree with Kurti. Kearns told CNN that British troops stationed in Kosovo had found \u201cweapons caches hidden in churches and ambulances by Serb militia in the north of Kosovo. We heard about grenades outside people\u2019s doorsteps if they refuse to support Serb militia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Despite this, much of the diplomatic response has focused on Kurti\u2019s actions, for which Kosovo has paid a heavy price. Since the fallout from the elections, Kosovo has been disinvited from joint military exercises with the US, excluded from European infrastructure projects and slapped with sanctions that the Kosovar Business Alliance says could cost its economy \u20ac500 million ($550 million) by the end of this year.<\/p>\n<p>Kearns criticized the \u201cunbalanced\u201d response from the West, saying it ignored the true cause of the troubles. \u201cThe start of the crisis was the Serbian government committing foreign interference in domestic Kosovar affairs, where they told Kosovar Serbs not to vote in the local elections. That is foreign interference,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p>Kurti has tried to proclaim Kosovo\u2019s sovereignty against the twin forces of foreign interference and organized violence, to which, according to Mujanovic, the US and EU have responded: \u201cNo. That is not appropriate in these circumstances.\u201d<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u201cThe Zelensky of the Balkans\u201d<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Given Kosovo\u2019s reliance on Western backing, some fear Kurti\u2019s intransigence is frustrating his allies and weakening his country. Some are calling for a complete change of tack.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s trying to be the Zelensky of the Balkans,\u201d Shqiprim Arifi, mayor of the southern Serbian region of Presevo, told CNN. \u201cHe is using rhetorically, and in a populist way, the argumentation of the rule of law. He wants to be the Zelensky of the Albanians.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Serbia\u2019s Presevo Valley represents the flipside of the north of Kosovo. Whereas Kosovo\u2019s north is populated mostly by ethnic Serbs in an Albanian-majority country, the Presevo Valley is populated mostly by ethnic Albanians in a Serb-majority country.<\/p>\n<p>The best way to improve the situation, Arifi said, is for Kurti to do as Western allies demand: Work to create as \u201cAssociation of Serb Municipalities\u201d (ASM) in the north of Kosovo.<\/p>\n<p>Kurti has been accused of preventing the implementation of self-governing municipalities for Serbs, as outlined in the 2013 Brussels Agreement aimed at normalizing relations between the Balkan neighbors. Under the agreement, Serbia could create the ASM in northern Kosovo, which would operate under Kosovo\u2019s legal system, with Kosovar police remaining the only law enforcement authority.<\/p>\n<p>A decade on, these municipalities have not been created, leaving disputes to fester over the degree of autonomy for Kosovo Serbs.<\/p>\n<p>But there are doubts as to whether this solution \u2013 now being forcefully pushed by the US and EU \u2013 will ease tensions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTrust me, it won\u2019t be the best solution,\u201d Dusan, a Serb living in Leposavic municipality, told CNN. \u201cMaybe, in the first couple of months, it will be a relief. Maybe, \u2018Oh look, we finally got something.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But it would be a false dawn. \u201cFrom an economic aspect, our lives will not be improved, but it will be worse,\u201d he said, since residents would have to start paying for services and taxes currently covered by Kosovo\u2019s government. CNN is withholding Dusan\u2019s real name, since he feared that his comments could affect his livelihood.<\/p>\n<p>There are also concerns that the ASM could beckon more geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t know what these municipalities will be,\u201d said Kearns. \u201cWill it just be that the local municipalities are responsible for their own water and electricity and taxes? Or is it that it is going to be a new Republika Srpska? The reality is, I don\u2019t think anyone wants another Republika Srpska.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Republika Srpska, one of the two entities comprising Bosnia and Herzegovina, proclaimed independence in 1992 and was formally recognized under the Dayton Agreement of 1995. In recent months, its pro-Russian President Milorad Dodik has tried to pave the way for its secession from Bosnia.<\/p>\n<p>In June, Republika Srpska lawmakers voted to suspend rulings by Bosnia\u2019s constitutional court, in a move described by experts as \u201clegal secession\u201d and a grave contravention of the Dayton Agreement. The US condemned the move, saying it threatened Bosnia\u2019s sovereignty.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe folks in Pristina and Kurti have made it very, very clear that they see in the autonomous municipalities a new Republika Srpska. And they don\u2019t see in that model a solution for Kosovo. They see a new version, a new generation of crisis for Kosovo, and ultimately the region as a whole,\u201d said Mujanovic.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The wrong horse? <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Throughout the recent months of tensions, the US and EU have continually reiterated their commitment to the cause of bringing Vu\u010di\u0107 on side. But Serbia has acted with increasing abandon, representing what Kearns called \u201ca failure of deterrence diplomacy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>One damaging episode came in Ohrid, North Macedonia, in March when, after months of negotiations brokered by the US and EU, Serbia and Kosovo finally accepted a bilateral agreement aimed at normalizing relations between the two countries. But, while this was heralded as a breakthrough, Vu\u010di\u0107 left the negotiations without having signed the document, claiming in a TV address that he was unable to do so: \u201cI have excruciating pain in my right hand\u2026 that pain is expected to continue for four years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Another came when Serbian authorities detained three Kosovo police officers, which it claimed were \u201cdeep inside the territory of central Serbia\u201d and preparing to commit \u201can act of terrorism.\u201d But Kosovo insisted that the officers had been \u201ckidnapped\u201d within Kosovo\u2019s borders and that Serbia had committed and \u201cact of aggression.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The US and EU were slow to respond to this incident. KFOR, NATO\u2019s Kosovo Force, issued a statement 48 hours after the officers were reported missing. The US issued a statement three days later, claiming that the arrests were made on \u201cspurious charges.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Joseph told CNN that the Serbian account of events was hard to believe \u2013 and that the wording of the US statement suggested their officials likely weren\u2019t buying it, either. \u201cIf the US were genuinely unsure about whether the Kosovo police were in Serbia, then why use such a categorical term [as \u201cspurious\u201d], which pre-empts the purview and judgement of the Serbian court?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>And yet Serbia was not punished for the detentions. The officers\u2019 release was secured two weeks later \u2013 not by Western allies, but by Viktor Oban.<\/p>\n<p>After such episodes, Joseph told CNN that the \u201csee no evil\u201d approach to Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s regime may be starting to crack.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe question here is: Who in the Biden administration still believes that Vu\u010di\u0107 is this partner?\u201d he said, pointing to the recent sanctioning of Aleksandar Vulin, director of Serbia\u2019s intelligence service, as evidence that the Biden administration \u201cis no longer captive to fear and illusion about Vu\u010di\u0107.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But whether this translates into a change of policy is unclear.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, Vu\u010di\u0107 has raised the stakes. In response to the sanctioning of Vulin, Vu\u010di\u0107 banned arms exports from Serbia for 30 days, claiming \u201ceverything must be prepared in case of aggression against the Republic of Serbia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s basically saying \u2018we\u2019re going to go into conflict, we have to stop all of the weapon exports right now, because we need it for our national security.\u2019 He\u2019s literally threatening war. I\u2019ve never seen him so explicit before,\u201d said Ruge of the ECFR.<\/p>\n<p>And the president\u2019s message has been taken up by some Serbian citizens. At Red Star Belgrade soccer match last month, nationalist Serb fans held up a banner reading \u201cWhen the army returns to Kosovo.\u201d Vu\u010di\u0107 attended the match, according to local media.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe situation is clear who the bully of the Balkans still is,\u201d Meliza Haradinaj, Kosovo\u2019s former foreign minister, told CNN. \u201cTime will prove that this \u2018investment\u2019 of appeasing Serbia will go in vain.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>You can read the original article <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2023\/08\/14\/europe\/serbia-vucic-kosovo-balkans-west-intl-cmd\/index.html\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(CNN) \u2013 When Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and European Union accelerated their pivot towards Serbia. Rather than juggling the contradictory demands of pluralistic and fractious Balkan states, Western capitals focused the bulk of their efforts on a singular target. Their policies had two aims. First, to bring Serbia into the Western fold, away [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":58744,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[250],"tags":[2251,300,243,151,383,1224,284,301,787,326],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The West\u2019s \u201csee no evil\u201d approach to Serbia\u2019s Vu\u010di\u0107 risks destabilizing the Balkans - Euronews Albania<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/euronews.al\/en\/the-wests-see-no-evil-approach-to-serbias-vucic-risks-destabilizing-the-balkans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The West\u2019s \u201csee no evil\u201d approach to Serbia\u2019s Vu\u010di\u0107 risks destabilizing the Balkans - Euronews Albania\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(CNN) \u2013 When Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and European Union accelerated their pivot towards Serbia. 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