While support for the European Union’s enlargement process is growing among member states, there are concerns among diplomats in Brussels that the enthusiasm for admitting new members could dwindle once actual discussions on enlargement commence.
Under the current criteria, less developed countries benefit as net recipients of the EU’s common budget, while wealthier nations contribute more than they receive. If these criteria are applied, nearly all existing EU members, with the exception of Bulgaria, would end up contributing more to the EU funds than they receive.
Two areas that traditionally receive the largest share of the budget are the cohesion policy and the agricultural policy. These policies aim to reduce economic disparities among member states, emphasizing solidarity. For instance, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has highlighted that her country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was at 48% of the EU average when it joined the EU, and it has now surpassed 80%. Other nations have also experienced GDP growth due to their EU memberships.
However, if the six Western Balkan states, along with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, were to become EU members, the EU’s average GDP would significantly decrease. Consequently, some current EU member states might no longer meet the criteria to benefit from the cohesion policy.
Applying the current criteria, if these nine new member states were to join the EU, it would require allocating 260 billion euros for the 7-year budget. Out of this sum, Ukraine would receive 186 billion euros due to its substantial territory, lower GDP per capita, and large population, while the other eight nations would have access to 74 billion euros.
These calculations have been conducted by the EU Council’s experts and have been included in an internal working document, which has become public knowledge. Although there has been no official comment on this document, the EU has not refuted the reports.
Nonetheless, when questioned about the potential expenses the EU might incur after admitting new members, the European Commission has stated that “budget planning cannot be simply replicated from the past and may need to adapt to new circumstances”.
It is understood in the EU that calls for commencing necessary preparations for enlargement also imply the initiation of discussions about the financial consequences. This sentiment has been echoed by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.
The EU has already approved its budget framework until 2027. However, the new budget must incorporate fresh calculations to ensure the availability of sufficient funds for the admission of new member states.
Growing support for enlargement
Expansion has emerged as a prominent topic in high-level discussions within the European Union, and there has been a notable increase in backing for this process.
Even during the recent informal EU summit, numerous leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, emphasized that both the EU and aspiring member countries should contribute to preparing for enlargement.
However, EU leaders have stressed that aspiring nations must diligently implement the required reforms, particularly in the realm of upholding the rule of law.
Some leaders have mentioned the year 2030, a timeframe put forth by Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, as a politically viable target for readiness to proceed with expansion. Nevertheless, opinions within the EU differ, with some considering this date too distant and others deeming it too soon.
The endorsement of expansion was further underscored through the Granada Declaration, adopted on October 6. This declaration underscored that expansion constitutes a geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability, and prosperity on the European continent. It emphasized that enlargement would help reduce disparities among nations and strengthen the core values upon which the EU was founded.
“As we contemplate a more extensive bloc in the future, both the EU and prospective member states must be adequately prepared. Aspiring nations should accelerate their reform efforts, particularly in the area of upholding the rule of law, guided by the principle of individual merit and supported by the EU. Concurrently, the Union must lay the groundwork to position itself for expansion. We will articulate our long-term ambitions and the strategies to achieve them,” stated the declaration.
Nonetheless, this surge in support appears to be more of a politically motivated response, sparked by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, which has given rise to a new political landscape in Europe. This conflict, initiated by Russia in early the preceding year, has served as a stark reminder that freedom in Europe can no longer be taken for granted. It underscores that EU expansion represents an investment in peace and stability, extending beyond mere economic growth.
