The Western Balkans may face an increased risk of localized ethnic violence during 2024, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik, aims for the de facto secession of Republika Srpska, and in Kosovo, where tensions escalated sharply last year, said the American intelligence community in an annual threat assessment report.
“Nationalist leaders are likely to stoke tensions for political gain, while external actors will exploit ethnic divisions to increase or protect their own regional influence, or to prevent greater integration of the Balkans into Euro-Atlantic institutions and the European Union,” the report said.
The National Intelligence Director’s Office report stated that “clashes between Serbian nationalists and Kosovar authorities have resulted in deaths and injuries, including the injury of NATO peacekeepers in 2023”.
On September 24, 2023, a group of armed Serbs attacked the Kosovo Police in Banjska of Zvecan, killing officer Afrim Bunjaku. Three Serbian attackers were killed during the clashes.
Kosovo blamed Serbia for the attack, stating that it attempted to “annex” the north, but Serbia denied any involvement.
NATO’s peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, KFOR, increased its troop numbers after the February 24 attack, now totaling 4,500 personnel.
Regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina, the report highlights that “the leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik, is taking provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and to secure de facto separation for his Republika Srpska”.
“His actions may prompt Bosniak leaders [Bosnian Muslims] to enhance their capabilities to defend their interests and thus potentially incite violent conflicts that may overwhelm peacekeeping forces,” the report said.
Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, has been attempting for the past two years to wrestle state power from Bosnia and Herzegovina and create parallel institutions, threatening that Republika Srpska will permanently secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Due to his “activities against the Dayton Agreement”, Dodik is on the sanctions list of the United States and the United Kingdom.
Dodik has previously stated that he is not afraid of American warnings and has threatened to revert the entity’s border to a state border.
The US Embassy in Sarajevo warns of the risk of Dodik’s separatist politics, stating that it “endangers Bosnia and Herzegovina’s European perspective, democracy, and its economy”.
