The purchase by Kosovo of the “Javelin” missile system, of American production, was considered one of the few positive developments for the Western Balkans in a debate held in Washington by the “New Line” Institute on the next decade in the region.

Balkan affairs expert and writer Jasmin Mujanović stated that the decision to strengthen Kosovo’s defense has a positive impact on the entire region.

“A strong, stable, sovereign Kosovo that has the power to deter attacks and is not dependent on KFOR but is part of the Kosovo Security Forces is very positive for the entire Western Balkans,” said Mujanović.

He mentioned another positive development in the last two or three years, especially an increase in formal and informal contacts between officials and the diaspora of the three Balkan countries: Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro. Referring to past mistakes, such as when Albanian students in Kosovo were “brutalized by Yugoslav security forces” during the 1981 protests, and Bosnia, Croatia, and Slovenia did not react, Mujanović emphasized that such mistakes should not be repeated.

“As we learned during the ’90s and as we should learn again, what starts in Kosovo ends in Bosnia, and what starts in Bosnia ends in Montenegro, as the issues are interconnected. When Aleksandar Vulin or Vučić talk about the Serbian World, we shouldn’t expect a reaction only from our friends in Pristina; we all should react, as it is a threat to all,” said Mujanović.

According to analyst Mujanović and human rights professor in the Balkans at Columbia University, Tanya Domi, the lack of commitment from the West to the region, and especially the flawed policies with pro-Russian and pro-Chinese nationalists in the Balkans, mainly in Serbia and the Republika Srpska of Bosnia, endanger the region’s security and the credibility of Western foreign policy.

“The problem we are dealing with is a weak foreign policy from the United States and, moreover, from the EU, and I would argue, and I know there are people who disagree with this, that it seems to soften positions towards some of the worst nationalist impulses and is contrary to the values of the United States,” said professor Domi.

Russians have set up a large reconnaissance center on the outskirts of the Serbian city of Niš, very close to the border with Kosovo, said analyst Jasmin Mujanović, even though Kosovo is the one facing measures from the West.

On June 28, the European Union informed Pristina about punitive measures, as Brussels stated that Kosovo authorities did not take the required steps to reduce tensions in northern Kosovo.

A few months later, as professor Tanya Domi highlighted, in the village of Banjska in north Kosovo, a group of armed Serbs crossed the border from Serbia and carried out an attack considered by the West as a terrorist act. Pristina accused Belgrade of being behind the attack, an accusation denied by Serbia.

“I think there is a growing disappointment with the behavior of the Serbian government,” said UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron in a briefing before members of the British parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee on January 9. The briefing followed Cameron’s visit to Kosovo a week earlier.

Cameron added that although he could not speak on behalf of Brussels or Washington, “I feel that even in the EU and the United States, there is a disappointment with Serbia because they understand that the Banjska case was a significant risk”.

For analyst Jasmin Mujanović, what British Foreign Secretary Cameron said in London is very accurate, as Western policy towards the Balkans has stalled since the pre-Russian aggression period in Ukraine.

“David Cameron acknowledged that despite everything the West is doing with Russian aggression in Ukraine, even in relation to our opponents in Beijing facing Taiwan, they are doing the opposite in the Balkans,” said Mujanović.

For professor Tanya Domi, “the State Department and the White House at this moment have different priorities”. According to her, even President Biden, who is considered to have good knowledge of the Balkans, is burdened with the issue of elections in the United States, and “they do not see the Balkans with attention until they are forced to do something. And if it comes to the point that they have to do something, it will be too late. That is my biggest concern and fear”.

Harun Karčić, the executive producer of Al Jazeera Balkans television, broadcasting from Sarajevo, argued during the debate that “there is no possibility that (Serbian President) Vučić did not know in advance about the Banjska case”.

During the debate, it was mentioned that Serbia has spent “extraordinary amounts of money” lobbying in the United States through official and unofficial channels over the past four years, exploiting the significant divisions currently existing in American politics regarding foreign policy.

“Very concretely, Serbia is trying very hard to influence the future direction of a potentially new Republican administration,” said analyst Jasmin Mujanović.

“I think they have identified very clearly some names they would like to see in high positions. I don’t think it’s a secret, for example, you know, Serbia would very much like to see Richard Grenell as the future Secretary of State. For the United States, this is a matter of national security because a foreign government is trying to influence appointments within future American administrations”.

For Mujanović, it is surprising that this is not raising an alarm in the United States, as Serbia’s efforts with Grenell are becoming publicly known.

“When you travel to Belgrade and receive state honors from a person who is a close collaborator of Vladimir Putin, who is a close collaborator of Xi Jinping, and you are part of serious discussions about being a very senior American official in the future administration, this issue should be alarming,” he said.