Russia does not want the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue process to end successfully according to Western projects, says a report published on March 1 in Pristina by the Kosovo Institute for Policy Research and Development (KIPRED).
A successful conclusion of the dialogue, mediated by the European Union and supported by the United States, would demonstrate Russia’s diminished influence on global issues, according to the report.
The dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia facilitated by the EU began in 2011. The aim is to normalize relations between the two countries. Kosovo declared independence in 2008 and is recognized by 117 states, but Serbia continues to consider it as part of its territory.
According to the KIPRED report, a successful conclusion to this dialogue would lead to the consolidation of Kosovo’s statehood and citizenship and regional security, while resolving issues with Kosovo would push Serbia towards Western orientation.
“Consequently, abandoning the Russian orbit in which Serbia is currently moving,” the report says.
Serbia has not joined the sanctions imposed by the EU against its ally, Russia, due to the unprovoked war in Ukraine.
What are Russia’s goals?
Undermining the foundations of Kosovo’s statehood, discrediting Western policies towards dialogue, and regaining a direct role for Moscow in this process are some of Russia’s goals, according to the KIPRED report.
The report also states that the war in Ukraine has revealed the depth of political, security, and economic relations between Russia and Serbia.
Russia began its unprovoked and illegal occupation of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and the war has now entered its third year.
Kosovo has joined the European Union sanctions against Russia due to its war in Ukraine.
“Russia seeks to exploit the Kosovo case (NATO intervention in 1999 and declaration of independence in 2008) as a bargaining chip to consolidate gains in Ukraine and Georgia, to legitimize its annexationist wars,” the report says.
“Kosovo with special interest for the Kremlin”
American researcher Ivana Stradner told Radio Free Europe that Kosovo is of special interest to the Kremlin because it “can use it for some purposes”.
“To ensure that the conflict remains ‘frozen’ so that (Vladimir) Putin can escalate it and position himself as a ‘mediator’, so if the West does not want the conflict to continue further, they have to negotiate with him,” she said.
She added that this is also beneficial for those, in her view, who are Putin’s representatives in the region.
Stradner mentioned Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić here, as she said, “he is using the crisis to escalate and then de-escalate the situation, and to position himself as a source of stability in the eyes of the West, to stay in power”.
Anti-Western propaganda
Stradner said Russia also uses propaganda to portray the West negatively.
“As NATO marks its 75th anniversary this year and also the 25th anniversary of intervention in Kosovo, Moscow will use information operations to accuse NATO of using depleted uranium in Serbia, supposedly increasing the number of cancer cases,” she said.
“It will also accuse the US of hypocrisy and draw parallels with the war in Ukraine. We already know the scenario – it has been around for a long time,” Stradner added.
Stradner expects tensions to continue in the region, particularly mentioning Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.
“Europe and the US are preoccupied with internal issues, such as elections. It’s a dream come true for Russia to cause more chaos in Europe. Moldova and the Balkans are part of the same strategy,” she said.
According to the KIPRED report, the lack of unanimity within the Euro-Atlantic community towards Kosovo, with five non-recognizing states, has created more maneuvering space for Russia to thwart Western efforts and “to engage resolutely in undermining the foundations of Kosovo’s statehood and destabilizing the region”.
The report emphasizes that a significant thrust of Russia to influence the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue is its power to block Kosovo’s membership in the United Nations and the OSCE.
University professor Bekim Sejdiu, who is also a researcher at KIPRED, told Radio Free Europe that Russia is interested in delegitimizing Kosovo’s statehood on the international stage.
“Also, Russia aims to discredit Western involvement in this process,” he said.
“Russia alone may not have a decisive role in the dialogue process, but when we consider especially the lack of coherence at certain moments within the West, as well as the consensus within the European Union and NATO regarding Kosovo’s independence, this undoubtedly creates a greater maneuvering space where Russia finds opportunities to exert influence,” he said.
He said Russia’s primary goal is to prevent the stabilization of the Balkans according to Euro-Atlantic parameters.
“The effect of this is open issues, conflicts, and continuous instability that we see – not only in some parts of Kosovo, but also in some parts of the region such as Bosnia, Montenegro, and so on,” he said.
Finally, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) based in the United Kingdom also said that Russia is rebuilding capacities to destabilize European states and expand influence in the Middle East and Africa, thus creating a strategic threat to NATO and its members, who are focused on the war in Ukraine.
Among other things, the report also mentions how the expansion of influence is also done through various charitable associations, including the Ahmat Kadyrov Foundation, which tries to popularize Kadyrov as a religious figure.
Similar work is done by the European Islamic Forum entity, an organization based in Brussels and established in October 2018.
