Security issues have once again become a topic of debate in North Macedonia, following warnings from political parties, as well as foreign services, of a potential escalation before or after the dual parliamentary and presidential elections.

Despite the alarm raised by the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), which is part of the government, that the opposition – based on Russian scenarios – could cause tensions during the elections, the political and security leadership in North Macedonia concludes that the security situation is stable.

DUI’s warning, which is led by Ali Ahmeti, came a month after a report from the American intelligence community stated that in 2024 “the Western Balkans may face an increasing risk of localized interethnic violence”.

“Nationalist leaders are likely to seek to increase tensions for their political advantage. Meanwhile, external actors will reinforce and exploit ethnic differences to enhance or defend their regional influence or to prevent further integration of the Balkans into the EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions,” the February report of the American Intelligence Community on global threats stated.

DUI leader Ahmeti said he sees the risk of unrest coming from Russia, which, assisted, according to him, by internal political structures, aims to destabilize to justify aggression in Ukraine.

“At a time when hundreds of thousands of troops are on the move, when Russia threatens world peace through the use of nuclear weapons, when Russia is waging war and bombing a sovereign state – Ukraine, we cannot be calm in the Western Balkans… Certainly, Russia wants to have hot spots everywhere to facilitate and justify its invasion of a sovereign state – Ukraine,” said Ahmeti without specifying the source of such information.

But North Macedonia’s institutions said they are aware of the foreign services’ report but do not expect any potential deterioration of the security situation.

“As for the security situation in the Republic of North Macedonia, we are closely monitoring all developments in the country and in the region, and the assessment is that the situation is stable,” the President’s Office told Radio Free Europe (RFE).

They said that the head of state is regularly informed about the security situation, both by institutions and through the Security Council, which is his advisory body.

According to Macedonian institutions, the warnings are more related to developments in northern Kosovo and Bosnia, where the Serbian leader, Milorad Dodik, considered a pro-Russian leader, has threatened several times with secession.

The Ministry of Defense of North Macedonia said there are no indications of ethnic tensions or violence in the country.

“The security situation in the country is stable. From the perspective of conventional threats, North Macedonia is a safe country and institutions are prepared for any hybrid challenges that we might see in all countries in the region and beyond,” said the assessment of the Ministry of Defense.

Security experts argued there are currently no signals of destabilization and that such alarms are exaggerated and more related to the election campaign.

“I think the assessment of Russian influence is overestimated because we have no reliable data to suggest such a thing. Attempts by Moscow to extend influence have occurred before, but not to the extent as the public is being alarmed. For DUI, I think Russia will be a major narrative,” said Marko Trosanovski, director of the Institute for Democracy.

“The shifting of all blame to an enemy, usually an imaginary enemy, is one of the oldest techniques of propaganda and in modern times, of political communication. Considering DUI’s slogan, [No to Russia, Yes to Europe], I think they will continue to portray all other forces as enemies of the country and pro-Russian-oriented,” concluded Trosanovski.

Besim Nebiu, a political analyst, commenting on DUI’s warnings, as one of the most vocal parties on the issue with Russia, which it has also included in its slogan, says that this party is looking for an election topic. According to him, if in the last elections this party had the “green agenda” and the “first Albanian prime minister”, now it is trying to impose “Russia”.

“I don’t think the topic works for the simple reason that their political opponents from the Albanian political bloc are not pro-Russia. Therefore, I think that through this topic, DUI fails to dictate the campaign narrative, as it did in the past elections,” argued Nebiu.

He believes that parties should not “tactically” deal with ethnic issues, tensions, or similar topics but should offer clear development programs for economic growth, wage increases, or raising the standard of living, which are also the main reasons for the departure of many young people from North Macedonia.