Russia has been actively working to increase its influence in North Macedonia since the beginning of the Ukrainian invasion, employing what is referred to as the “hard power” concept, according to a study conducted by the civil association “Most”.
The research delves into Russian propaganda, its influence, and disinformation narratives related to the Ukrainian conflict, which have been circulating online in North Macedonia from March 2022 to February 2023.
The concept of “hard power”, as revealed in the study, is primarily executed through the promotion of Slavic-Orthodox brotherhood and leveraging the church for this purpose.
The study highlights that Russian influence aims to draw the population into a sense of shared values with “Slavic and Orthodox brothers” from Russia, encouraging resistance to the European Union and NATO, by suggesting that these entities have nothing in common with the Western world and the United States.
During the first year of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the study identifies five main objectives of Russian hostile narratives in North Macedonia. These include justifying the aggression, depicting Ukraine as a threat to Russia’s existence due to its alleged proximity to the West and association with Nazism, through narratives such as “Biological weapon labs in Ukraine” and “Ukrainians being Nazis”.
The study stresses that this external influence is detrimental as it disseminates propaganda that divides the information space, attempting to increase its influence on citizens through various manipulative tactics. Additional aims involve spreading disinformation that sanctions hurt the West more than Russia and creating a perception that the West desires to destroy Russia because of its Orthodox worldview, a narrative endorsed by Russian officials, allies, and propagandists.
Another significant aspect of Russian disinformation in North Macedonia involves manipulating events in Yugoslavia to create a narrative that “Kosovo is Serbia, Donbass is Russia”.
The study concludes that all these objectives serve divisive purposes, aiming to instigate anti-Western sentiments within the audience and obstruct North Macedonia’s Euro-Atlantic integration and that of the region. The Kremlin places great importance on North Macedonia and the Balkans.
The study by the civil association “Most” is based on the findings and recommendations of their earlier research on “Disinformation and distortion of information in North Macedonia”, published in December 2021.
The “Most” civil association study concludes that authorities, political parties, the academic community, the private sector, the media, and all relevant actors must acknowledge the presence of Russian malign influence. Subsequently, a long-term strategic plan to counter foreign malign influence and a comprehensive strategic communication plan should be devised, approved, and consistently executed.
