Albania’s natural increase is entirely dependent on the number of women in reproductive age, but they are experiencing a rapid decline.

Data from the 2023 Census show that in 2023 there were 508 thousand women of reproductive age (15-49 years) nationwide, down from over 710 thousand in the 2011 census. Their number between the two censuses has decreased by more than 28%, which is more than double the overall population decline (14%).

Among younger age groups with the highest potential for childbearing, the decline was over 40%.

The largest decline is seen in females aged 15-19, who have decreased in number by more than in 2011.

In 2023, there were only 72 thousand females aged 15-19, a 45% decline from the 2011 census where there were over 132 thousand females in this age group.

The decline of women in reproductive age will affect the low birth rate in the coming years and contribute to the irreversible reduction of the population.

Women in the 25-29 age group decreased by 21%.

The lowest decline, 6%, was among women aged 30-34, while reductions of over 30% are also present in the 40-44 and 44-49 age groups.

Besides shrinking in numbers, women of reproductive age are also giving birth to fewer children.

In 1950, when the communist dictatorship regime was established, 47,291 infants were born, according to data from INSTAT archives, while the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years) was only 259,472.

In 2023, nationwide, only 22,210 infants were born, the lowest level since 1934 when official annual data were reported, while the number of women of reproductive age is over 500 thousand.

It is understandable that since the ’50s and ’60s, Albania, like Europe, has evolved towards family planning, gender equality, and integrating women into the labour market. However, the country still has a higher percentage of women giving birth to fewer children than desired.

Demographers and sociologists are concerned that births in Albania have fallen beyond all predictions.