Projection of the result for the local elections of the Municipality of Tirana

According to the Barometer, Erion Veliaj will receive 54.4% of the votes (the poll’s margin of error is +/- 2%).

Belind Kelliçi will get 37.1% of the votes (the poll’s margin of error is +/-2%).

Roland Bejko will receive 3.8% of the vote (the poll’s margin of error is +/- 1.5%).

Arlind Qori will get 2.6% of the vote (the poll’s margin of error is +/-1.5%).

Lajla Përnaska will get 2.1% of the votes (the poll’s margin of error is +/- 1.5%).

If we calculate the above percentages with the margin of error, redistributing the answers without taking into account those who declared that they will not vote, the minimum and maximum values ​​to vote for the candidates in the May 14 elections are as follows:

The segment of the election result prediction within the margin of error

The minimum value to vote for Erion Veliaj is 52.4% while the maximum value is 56.4%.

The minimum value to vote for Belind Kelliçin is 35.1% while the maximum value is 39.1%.

The minimum value to vote Roland Bacon is 2.3% while the maximum value is 5.3%.

The minimum value to vote Arlin Qorin is 1.1% while the maximum value is 4.1%.

The minimum value to vote for Lajla Pernaska is 0.6% while the maximum value is 3.6%.

As in the first 3 measurements, citizens were asked who they will vote for on May 14. This type of measurement, considered as the tendency of the vote, brings the 6 candidates to the following values:

Vote trend: Who will you vote for in the May 14 election?

This is the question addressed to the citizens of the capital by the final Barometer in Euronews Albania.

43.4% have said that they will vote for Erion Veliaj, 29.6% will vote for Belind Këlliçi, 3% of them will vote for Roland Bejko, 2.1% will vote for Arlind Qori and 1.7% of the capital’s residents said that they will vote for Lajla Përnaska.

7.9% of citizens said they will not vote in the May 14 elections, 11.4% have not decided who they will vote for and 0.9% of them said “I don’t know”.

Compared to the month of April, the candidate Erion Veliaj has experienced an increase of 1.3% of those who have expressed that they will vote for him, while the candidate of “Bashke Fitojme” Belind Këlliçi has experienced an increase of 0.9% from April to May, of the citizens who have expressed that they will vote on May 14.

Roland Bejko of the Democratic Party has increased by 1.6% from April to May.

Arlind Qori and Lajla Përnaska have increased by 1.3% from April to May.

The number of residents of the capital who will not vote on May 14 has increased by 1.3% from April, which was 6.6%, to May, which is 7.9%.

The number of citizens of the capital who are undecided to vote on May 14 has decreased by 6.1% and the number of citizens who have expressed that they do not know whether they will vote in the local elections has decreased by 1.8%.

How has the trend of voting for candidates Erion Veliaj and Belind Këllicit changed in the last 4 months

The capital citizens who have expressed that they will vote for Erion Veliaj on May 14 have undergone this change: from 45.6% in February, it became 45.8% in March, then in April the percentage decreased to 42.1%, while in May the figures show an increase, going to 43.4%.

The capital’s citizens were asked how likely they are to vote for Erion Veliaj on May 14:

50.9% said: I will definitely vote for him/maybe I will vote for him.

44.2% said: I will definitely/probably not vote for him.

4.9% of them said: I don’t know.

Chances to vote for Belind Kelliçi on May 14:

34.1% expressed: Undoubtedly/probably I will vote for him.

57.1% said: I will definitely/probably not vote for him.

8.8% said: I don’t know/I don’t know.

Chances to vote for Roland Bejko:

3.5% of the residents of the capital expressed: I will definitely/probably vote for him.

58% of them said: Definitely/probably I will not vote for him.

38.5% said: I don’t know him /I don’t know.

The chances of voting for Arlind Qorrin of the ‘Levizja Bashkë’:

4.6% of the citizens of the capital expressed: I will definitely/probably vote for him.

51.9% said: I will definitely/probably not vote for him.

43.5% said: I don’t know him/I don’t know.

Chances of voting for ‘PDIU’ candidate Lajla Përnaska:

2.6% of the residents of the capital expressed: I will definitely/probably vote for her.

53.5% said: I will definitely/probably not vote for her.

43.9% of them said I don’t know her/I don’t know.

The perception of the citizens remains at the same levels even when you ask them about the likeability or popularity of each of the candidates.

53.8% of the citizens of the capital have a positive opinion of Veliaj, 43% have a negative opinion, 3% of them have not expressed an opinion, while 0.2% say they do not know him.

As for the candidate of the Coalition ‘Bashke Fitojme’ Belind Këlliçi, who is running for the head of the Municipality of Tirana, the citizens of the capital have expressed:

39.6% have a positive opinion, 49.9% have a negative opinion, 5.3% of the capital residents have not expressed any opinion and 5.2% of them have expressed that they do not know him.

For the “Levizja Bashke” candidate, Arlind Qori, 11.4% of the capital’s residents have a positive opinion.

42.7% of them have a negative opinion, 38.2% have expressed that they do not know him and 7.7% of them have not given an opinion about him.

For the candidate of the Democratic Party led by Enkelejd Alibeaj, Roland Bejko, 10% of the capital’s residents have a positive opinion, 49.1% have a negative opinion, 33.4% said they do not know him and 7.5% of them have not given any opinion.

For the ‘PDIU’ candidate, Lajla Përnaska, the citizens of Tirana have expressed: 7.6% have a positive opinion, 43% have a negative opinion, 41.6% have expressed that they do not know her and 7.8% of the capital’s citizens have not given any opinion.

The popularity of Erion Veliaj has undergone changes in terms of his likeability. Since February, the popularity of Veliaj has increased by 2.7%. From 60.1% in February, in March it is 62.8%. Even the candidate of “Bashke Fitojme” Belind Këlliçi has had an increase in the percentage of likability. The approval rating for the Rooster has increased by 4% from February to March. From 33.8% in February, in March the approval rating went to 37.8%.

92.3% of the residents of the capital who expressed a positive opinion about Veliaj were voters of the Socialist Party in 2021. 7.2% of the residents of the capital who expressed a positive opinion were voters of the Democratic Party in 2021. While 29.4% were politically unidentified.

Of those who have a negative opinion of Veliaj: 6.7% were Socialist Party voters in 2021, 91.1% Democratic Party voters in 2021 and 58.9% are politically unidentified.

Those who have expressed a positive opinion about Belind Këllici: 13.6% are voters of the Socialist Party in 2021, 88.8% are voters of the Democratic Party in 2021, while 31.1% are politically unidentified.

Citizens who have expressed a negative opinion about Belind Kelliçi, 73.7% are Socialist Party voters in 2021, 8.2% are Democratic Party voters in 2021, 50.7% of them are politically unidentified.