The distribution of votes between Democrats in the municipality of Shkoder will settle the final result of the local by-elections in this district.

PSD’s Tom Doshi however, will also be an important factor in these elections. He isn’t officially registered in these elections but has openly supported candidates running for the Socialist Party (SP).

Based on the results of the 2021 elections, we can make a forecast based on the votes that are needed by each candidate to win these elections.

If the votes won by Democrats in the last elections in Shkoder (29 893) were to be divided into two equal parts (14 946) – due to the rift in the Democratic Party – the Socialist Party (SP) would win the elections in Shkoder.

Home of Freedom coalition with half of the votes (14 946), in addition to the votes of SMI (7.880) would still not be able to overtake the Socialist Party with 15.848 and PSD with 9.808.

The new mayor of Shkoder could be Xhemal Bushati of the Democratic Party if Berisha’s Home of Freedom candidate – Bardh Spahia – isn’t able to win at least 15% more than the votes won by DP back in 2021.

Bardh Spahia would become mayor of Shkoder if the Home of Freedom coalition is able to get 56% or more, of the votes won by Democrats back in 2021.

In any other scenario, the winner would be Majlinda Agolli from the Socialist Party.